Hedging your bets against the future: the forex option

All speculation-based markets are full of uncertainty, and none more so than the forex market. A currency might be strong and vibrant today, weak and sickly a month from now. One way to guard against major fluctuations like that is through forex option trading.

A forex option is when you buy the right -- but not the obligation -- to buy or sell a particular currency at a particular rate any time between now and the expiration date of the option.

Let’s say you’re worried that the Japanese yen is going to drop in value sometime in the next six months. You might buy an option that basically locks in the current exchange rate for whatever period of time the option seller allows, usually anywhere from 30 days to six months. You set a number of yen, too. Say you choose 10,000 yen at a rate of 116 yen per U.S. dollar for three months. The option basically says, “I may want to sell 10,000 yen sometime in the next three months, but I’m worried the yen is going to devalue in that time. So I’ve locked in this rate of USD/JPY 116.”

Then three months pass. If your prediction was correct and the yen has weakened in that time -- say it’s now USD/JPY 122 -- then you exercise your right to sell 10,000 yen at the rate you bought three months earlier. Everyone else selling yen today (everyone who didn’t have a forex option, that is) is selling it at 122 per U.S. dollar, and you get to sell it at 116.

If, on the other hand, the yen has stayed the same or gotten stronger, you are under no obligation to actually sell that 10,000 yen your option talked about. You can simply do nothing, and all you’ve lost is the premium you originally paid for the option.

Ah yes, there is a premium. Brokers who sell forex options charge a fee for the privilege. Think of it as insurance; calling it a “premium” certainly fits. The price of a forex option for 10,000 yen for three months might be $200, which you must pay up front. If the yen drops enough in value, you’ll hopefully turn enough of a profit to make up for the $200 you had to pay. If it increases in value, and you wind up not exercising the option, all you’ve lost is the $200 premium.

Forex option trading used to be done only by major banks and corporations, but now many brokers who cater to individual traders offer the service, too. If you’re a heavy-duty trader, a forex option is definitely something to consider to guard against future setbacks in the currency you hold.

When it comes to smart investing, all world news is forex news.

Forex traders know one of the advantages of their field is that the forex market is open 24 hours a day, five and a half days a week. But a 24-hour marketplace means there’s forex news coming in constantly, too. With so much information coming from so many markets literally at all hours of the day, it can be hard to keep up with all the news available to you.

But at the same time, an informed trader is a successful trader. To make informed decisions on when to buy and sell currencies, you’ll have to keep an eye on all the news you can get your hands on. Many Web sites make it relatively easy for you by corralling the forex news into one place, often dividing it into subcategories for easy navigating. Any forex trader, whether new or experienced, should find a news source he likes and check it often.



Many of these forex news sites also offer commentary and analysis, beyond just a simple ticking off of the latest rates. Here you’ll find experts talking about the issues involved and perhaps offering insights beyond what you would have come up with on your own. Some news sites charge a registration fee for access to all their materials, but it can be worth it in the long run.

Aside from running 24 hours a day, another reason there is constantly a stream of forex news is that so many factors can influence a currency’s strength. Natural disasters, government actions and other things -- both foreseeable and not foreseeable -- can cause a nation’s currency to go up or down in relative value. An experienced trader will look at all this news and know how to predict what effect it will have.

Often, forex news isn’t labeled as such. Any economic news at all can affect the forex market; a sharp-eyed trader is on the lookout constantly for news that might impact his trading. In other words, a good trader will have to be an expert on world affairs, monitoring political, social and other developments in other countries. All of this, combined with the more specific forex news dealing with the details of exchange rates and so forth, gives you the information you need to be successful at currency trading.